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There is new
information on two abiding mysteries about the Iraq war: How many
Iraqis have been killed? And why did President Bush order a U.S.
attack on Iraq in the first place?
Last week, U.S. and
Iraqi researchers - writing in the respected British medical
journal, The Lancet - estimated that the Iraqi death toll associated
with the invasion and occupation of Iraq was about 100,000 "and may
be much higher."
Most of them were
women and children - victims of bombs or bullets from helicopter
gunships.
The estimates
reported in Lancet were made by comparing the Iraqi death rate in
the 15 months before the invasion with the death rate during the 18
months after the attack.
The scientists who
wrote the report acknowledge that their data is of "limited
precision" because it was based on household interviews in some 33
neighborhoods across the country. More household surveys would have
improved the accuracy of their conclusions, the authors said, but it
would have required "enormous risk" to the courageous teams of
interviewers.
Early on, Gen.
Tommy Franks, former chief of the U.S. Central Command, said, "We
don't do body counts."
Actually, the U.S.
military stopped publicizing enemy body counts during the first Gulf
War in 1991. The Pentagon decided in the aftermath of the Vietnam
War that body counts were hurtful to the military's public relations
and should be kept under wraps.
Today, Pentagon
officials can tell you the exact number of American casualties:
1,122 dead and 8,287 wounded, so far. But they say they don't
"track" Iraqi deaths, civilian or military.
Defense Department
spokesman James Turner said there is no way to validate the
estimates of civilian casualties by the Defense Department or any
other organization.
"This conflict has
been prosecuted in the most precise fashion of any conflict in the
history of modern warfare," he added. "The loss of any innocent
lives is a tragedy, something Iraqi security forces and the
multi-national force painstakingly work to avoid."
Bush apparently
invested in the fantasy that invading Iraq would be a cakewalk.
Evangelist Pat
Robertson, founder of the U.S. Christian Coalition, disclosed that
when he warned the president about the need to prepare Americans for
the prospect of casualties in Iraq, Bush responded: "We're not going
to have any casualties."
I wonder what
planet the president has been living on to imagine he could pull off
a military blitz without casualties.
White House aides
jumped in with strong denials that Bush had made such a statement.
Presidential adviser Karen Hughes said Robertson must have "either
misunderstood, misheard or been confused about the conversation."
The president,
however, never denied it publicly, apparently not wanting to tangle
with Robertson, who has acknowledged "deep misgivings about the
war."
Later, Robertson
issued a two-paragraph statement confirming his support for Bush,
saying, "He's a great leader and I am 100 percent in favor of his
re-election." He did not retract his statement about Bush's
no-casualties comment.
There are also new
insights into Bush's reasons for invading Iraq.
Mickey Herskowitz,
a prolific book author and the Bush family's authorized biographer,
says Bush was "thinking about invading Iraq in 1999. It was on his
mind."
How does Herskowitz
know that? It turns out that he had been hired by Bush - then
governor of Texas - to ghostwrite his autobiography, ultimately
titled "A Charge to Keep: My Journey to the White House."
Herskowitz
was given unimpeded access to Bush, and the two men met
approximately 20 times so Bush could share his thoughts, according
to independent journalist Russ Baker, who interviewed Herskowitz.
During one of their
conversations, Herskowitz said, Bush told him that "one of the keys
to being seen as a great leader is to be seen as a commander in
chief."
He said Bush's
circle of advisers had a fixation on the political capital that
former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher collected from the
Falklands war in 1982.
"They were just
absolutely blown away, just enthralled by the scenes of the troops
coming back, of the boats, people throwing flowers at (Thatcher) and
her getting those standing ovations in Parliament in making these
magnificent speeches."
Herskowitz,
who also was the authorized biographer of the president's
grandfather, Prescott Bush, said George W. Bush's beliefs about Iraq
were based in part on the concept: "Start a small war, pick a
country where there is justification you can jump on, go ahead and
invade." If successful, you'll be hero at home.
Bush aides ended up
canceling the Herskowitz book project because the draft didn't glow
enough about their boss. Hughes herself ended up rewriting it.
The idea that we
would go to war to boost a president's political fortunes is
obscene.
Now that the
election is over and the commander in chief won, he can return to
the business of war. The administration is planning a massive
assault on the city of Fallujah, Iraq. But we will never know the
death toll for Iraqi civilians who live there.
Helen Thomas is a columnist for Hearst
Newspapers.
E-mail: helent§hearstdc.com. Copyright 2004 Hearst Newspapers. |